SINGAPORE, March 12 (Reuters) – Gold ticked higher on Friday after the euro edged up against the dollar ahead of U.S. retail sales data for February, which could show falling consumer spending.

FUNDAMENTALS

Spot gold was at $1,110.15 an ounce by 0028 GMT, up 85 cents from New York’s notional close on Thursday, when it hit a low around $1,100, its weakest since Jan. 25

U.S. gold futures for April delivery rose $2.8 an ounce to $1,111 after ending slightly higher on Thursday despite worries that possible monetary tightening by China
could weigh on bullion.

The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings stood at 1,115.511 tonnes as of March 11, unchanged from the previous business day.

MARKET NEWS

In early Asian trade, the euro was a tad up at $1.3685 from $1.3677 late in New York on Thursday, when it rose a little over 0.1 percent.

U.S. retail sales are due later in the day and a Reuters survey forecasts a 0.2 percent decline, compared with a 0.5 percent increase in January.

Japan’s Nikkei average rose 1.1 percent to hit a seven-week high at the open on Friday, boosted by exporters such as Honda Motor after Wall Street rallied on the
possibility new banking regulations being studied by U.S. Congress could be watered down.

U.S. crude futures were little changed on Friday around $82 a barrel, just under an eight-week high hit two days earlier.

#

* U.S. trade gap narrows, claims higher than forecast
* SNB says would act “decisively” on Swiss franc
* New Zealand dollar falls after RBNZ holds rates

NEW YORK, March 11 (Reuters) – The dollar traded little changed versus major currencies on Thursday after mixed data on U.S. trade and jobless claims failed to give investors direction.

The U.S. trade gap narrowed unexpectedly in January as oil imports fell while the number of U.S. workers filing new applications for unemployment insurance was slightly higher than expected last week, hinting at a slow labor market recovery.

“The data released this morning was unable to move the market and especially against the euro, we’ve seen the dollar in a very tight range over the course of the week,” said John Doyle, foreign-exchange strategist at Tempus Consulting in Washington.

“The dollar is really struggling to find direction and I think investors are likely to shift their focus to tomorrow’s retail sales number.”

The Commerce Department is slated to release U.S. retail sales for February on Friday, with economists polled by Reuters looking for a decline of 0.2 percent.

In late New York trading, the euro was up 0.1 percent at $1.3673. The euro peaked intraday at $1.3687 with a low of $1.3620, according to Reuters data.

The euro briefly came under pressure after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the first priority for Greece was to win back the confidence of financial markets and the debt-stricken country’s first steps were a positive start.

“There’s a perception that the Greek austerity plan is only a temporary pause on sovereign debt risk, and there’s concern that there could be problems in Portugal, Spain, Ireland,” said Michael Malpede, market analyst at Easy Forex in Chicago. “If anything, traders appear to have a preference to sell the euro on rallies.”

The dollar was little changed at 90.53 yen, after touching a two-week high on Wednesday.

SWISS NATIONAL BANK EYED

The Swiss franc earlier fell after the Swiss National Bank said it would act “decisively” to counter any excessive rise in the Swiss currency.

The Swiss central bank’s announcement came as it left interest rates on hold and said signs of an economic recovery were becoming more tangible.

The euro hit a session high of 1.4630 Swiss francs and was last flat at 1.4617 francs. The dollar fell 0.1 percent to 1.0688 francs.

Sterling rose 0.5 percent to $1.5057 after a slight uptick in inflation expectations, though analysts expected economic and political concerns to keep the pound under pressure ahead of an upcoming general election.

The Australian dollar last traded little changed at US$0.9149, swinging between gains and losses after strong Chinese data and a smaller-than-expected rise in Australian employment.

Chinese inflation rose to a 16-month high and other data showed broad-based strength, fueling expectations Beijing may further tighten monetary policy.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.2 percent to $0.7004 after the central bank said there was no urgency to lift interest rates off their current record lows.

#

OPEC raised their global consumption expectations for 2010, and raised their output productions by 190,000 barrels to 28.94mn bpd.

Shell have confirmed that they have ceased selling gasoline to Iran.

BP have agreed to buy Devon Energy Corp in a $7bn deal.

The rate of unemployment rose to 5.3% in Australia, missing estimates. Analysts had expected 15,000 jobs to be created, but it came it at 400.

Japans revised Q4 GDP showed that their economy expanded by 0.9% as opposed to the reported 1.1%.

EU Ministers are scheduled to meet on March 16th to discuss the Greek debt issue.

#

* Swedish CPI (Feb) came out marginally higher than expectations at 0.6% m/m, 2.7% y/y (0.5%/2.6% expected, -0.6%/0.6% prior).

* SNB kept interest rates unchanged at 0.25%, but reiterated their commitment to preventing ‘excessive’ CHF strength against EUR and said the possibility of deflation could not be ruled out.

* Norges bank says more rapid rise in prices anticipated (Bloomberg).

* US Initial Claims were approximately in line with expectations at 462k (460k expected) prior reading revised to 468k from 469k.

* US Continuing Claims higher than forecasts at 4558k (4500k expected) and prior reading revised up to 4521k from 4500k.

* US International Trade (Jan) came out at USD -37.29bn (-41.00bn expected, -39.9bn prior).

* Canada Capacity Utilization (Q4) higher than expected at 70.9% (69.9% expected), prior reading also revised up to 68.7% from 67.5%.

* Canada New Housing Index (Jan) in line at 0.4% (0.4% expected, 0.4% prior).

#

The rate of unemployment rose to 5.3% in Australia, missing estimates. Analysts had expected 15,000 jobs to be created, but it came it at 400.

Japans revised Q4 GDP showed that their economy expanded by 0.9% as opposed to the reported 1.1%.

EU Ministers are scheduled to meet on March 16th to discuss the Greek debt issue.

#

The rate of unemployment rose to 5.3% in Australia, missing estimates. Analysts had expected 15,000 jobs to be created, but it came it at 400.

Japans revised Q4 GDP showed that their economy expanded by 0.9% as opposed to the reported 1.1%.

EU Ministers are scheduled to meet on March 16th to discuss the Greek debt issue.

#

* Euro steadies vs dlr, yen; China tightening concerns ease
* Euro flat at $1.3653
* SNB policy decision eyed; euro hits 1-month low vs franc
* Aussie recovers; NZ dollar falls after RBNZ holds rates

LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) – The euro steadied against the dollar and yen in quiet trade on Thursday, recovering from earlier falls after strong Chinese data fuelled expectations of possible further monetary tightening by Beijing.

Chinese inflation rose to a 16-month high and other economic data showed broad-based strength, boosting safe-haven flows into the yen and dollar against the euro and perceived riskier assets.

The yen’s rally later fizzled out, however, as the market took the view that the economic recovery in China remained broadly on track to drive global growth.

“There was a bit of a risk aversion move earlier, with the dollar and the yen performing better due to the possibility of more tightening in China, but it’s not really a durable trade,” said Tom Levinson, currency strategist at ING in London.

“The market likes to see China acting in a responsible way to safeguard its long-term growth potential,” he said.

Gains in the yen were also limited after sources familiar with the Bank of Japan’s thinking told Reuters the central bank may ease monetary policy as early as next week.

By 1226 GMT, the euro was up 0.2 percent at 123.81 yen, off an earlier low near 123.00. Against the dollar the euro was flat at $1.3653.

The dollar was up slightly at 90.66 yen, having climbed as far as 90.83 on trading platform EBS on Wednesday, its highest in two weeks.

“As long as any measures out of China are implemented in a gradual manner then it is more likely to be a positive for risk appetite as Chinese growth is still healthy,” said Carl Hammer, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

SNB EYED

The euro was steady against the Swiss franc at 1.4608 francs after earlier falling to a one-month low around 1.4597 as markets awaited a Swiss National Bank policy decision at 1300 GMT.

The SNB is expected to keep interest rates very low and maintain its policy of foreign exchange intervention to curb any excessive appreciation in the Swiss currency and aid Switzerland’s nascent economic recovery.

Analysts said many in the market expect the SNB to tone down its rhetoric on intervention, but traders were also wary that the central bank may be ready to step in if the franc appreciates too much as a result.

This kept the euro steady against the franc, with traders reporting good demand for euro/Swiss options ahead of the SNB’s policy assessment.

“We do not rule out some watering down of the interventionist language, which would likely be interpreted by the market as a form of guarded approval for further EUR/CHF downside,” UBS analysts said in a note.

The Australian dollar rose 0.1 percent against the U.S. dollar to $0.9156, cutting earlier losses made after the strong Chinese data and on data showing a smaller-than-expected rise in Australian employment.

The New Zealand dollar fell 0.2 percent to $0.7001 after the central bank said there was no urgency to lift interest rates off their current record lows.

#

A bit like the football team AC Milan – star performer in years gone by – NZD/USD took a good old beating last night. Although the RBNZ’s decision to keep rates on hold at 2.5% was widely expected, the statement and subsequent commentary was altogether more dovish, and extinguished at least some of the prior enthusiasm for NZD this year. The statement repeated comments that the central bank would look at introducing hikes in mid 2010, but said higher funding costs would reduce the extent of further rate rises. Governor Bollard was also on the wires saying that he saw the future normal level of the cash rate as not conducive to the carry trades; which will no doubt dampen expectations in the rest of the year.

The other central bank meeting due this week is the SNB (decision due 13:00 GMT), but in our view, this will be far less interesting – going with last night’s football analogy it’s more of a Burnley vs. Stoke fixture. Polls show analysts are in unanimous agreement that the SNB will maintain their 3 month labor target at 0.25% this month, despite encouraging readings in Q4 GDP (+0.7% QoQ) and outstanding retail sales figures this month (4.4% YoY).

Most attention will instead focus on whether the SNB will discuss their stance on further FX intervention in EUR/CHF; and whether they mention any sort of preferred target for the pair. In the past, members have kept away from being too specific about their intervention tactics so we concede there is only a slim chance that more information is forthcoming this time around; nevertheless, EUR/CHF has spent nearly a month locked in an acutely tight range around 1.4620 levels, and at some point the deadlock between CHF bulls and the SNB will have to come to a head – it’s just doubtful that point will be today’s meeting.

#

* Japan’s Tsumura sees signs of self-sustained recovery in domestic demand.

* Japan’s Hirano was more pessimistic; saying economy still in severe state despite positive growth.

* Japan Q4 GDP was revised to +0.9% q/q, +3.8% annualized (1.0%/4.0% expected, 1.1%/4.6% prior).

* Reports that the China Statistics Bureau sees mild inflation in the coming year, but no signs of overheating.

* China CPI (Feb) +2.7% y/y, PPI +5.4%, +2.3% and +5.2% eyed, +1.2% and +0.4% m/m.

* China industrial production (Feb) +20.7% y/y, retail sales +17.9%, +19.5% /+18.0% eyed.

* Australia employment (Feb) +0.4k, unemployment 5.3% (+15k, 5.3% expected).

* RBNZ holds rates at 2.50% as expected, but more dovish tone to statement; reiterated hikes not due until mid 2010.

* RBNZ Governor Bollard was quoted as saying future normal level of OCR not conducive to carry trade, can afford to wait and watch before hiking rates, wants to see signs of robust recovery, may not need to up rates as high as previous cycle.

* NZ PMI (Feb) ticked up to 53.3.

#

* Gold rebounds from 2-week lows; PGMs weaken
* China consumer inflation rises more than expected
* Coming Up: Weekly U.S. jobless claims (1330 GMT)

SINGAPORE, March 11 (Reuters) – Gold regained some strength on Thursday after falling to its lowest in nearly two weeks the previous day, though poor technicals and failure to sustain recent gains may spur selling, traders said.

Bullion has seen a series of correction since striking a lifetime high $1,200 an ounce last December. Although it has rebounded from a three-month low around $1,043 February, a build up in long positions in New York futures has now threatened to cap any gains.

Spot gold was at $1,108.90 an ounce by 0305 GMT, up $1.05 from New York’s notional close on Wednesday, when it fell to as low as $1,102.85 an ounce, its lowest level since Feb. 25, as safe-haven buying on Greek sovereign debt worries tapered off.

Gold rose above the 50-day moving average on Thursday as bargain hunters resurfaced but it remained below the 100-day moving average, with strong Chinese inflation data triggering worries about further monetary tightening.

The world’s largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust, said its holdings stood at 1,115.511 tonnes as of March 10, down 0.609 tonnes from the previous business day.

“We have seen investors withdraw holdings in the SPDR ETF, which has stalled the upward trend seen since the end of February,” said David Barclay, commodity strategist at Standard Chartered in Hong Kong.

“The stronger than expected CPI numbers out of China this morning raise the prospect of a 27 (basis point) rate hike by end-Q1, which would move policy further away from a super-loose stance to a more accommodative one. This could weigh on commodities markets in the near term which would be bearish for gold.”

Chinese consumer inflation rose more than expected in the year to February, while factory output and retail sales data for the first two months showed the economy started 2010 with a strong head of steam.

Coming a day after surprisingly strong export and import data, the figures could reinforce the case for further monetary tightening even as central bank data showed the pace of credit growth halved in February. U.S. gold futures for April delivery added $1.2 to $1,109.3 an ounce, having ended 1.3 percent lower on Wednesday.

The latest Commitment of Traders report by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed net long noncommercial gold futures positions at 207,372 contracts, up 3.4 percent from the prior week and up 14 percent during the last four weeks.

“We’ve see a little bit of buying but the market comes off after it reaches $1,111. I think the concern now is whether China is going to raise interest rates, then it will affect sentiment in commodities,” said a dealer in Hong Kong.

The euro was trading around $1.3650, having risen 0.4 percent on Wednesday. U.S. crude futures fell below $82 a barrel on Thursday after hitting an eight-week high above $83 a day earlier on government data showing an unexpected decline in
U.S. gasoline inventories.

Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM), a unit of Singapore Exchange (SGX), said it will commence trading of its new gold deferred settlement contract on March 30.

#

* UK industrial production (Jan) posted a dreadful -0.4% m/m (+0.3% expected, 0.5% prior).

* Germany CPI (Feb) was revised up to 0.4% m/m, +0.6% y/y (0.2/0.3 expected).

* UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown says currency imbalances holding back global growth.

* German Economy Minister reported to have said European Monetary Fund should only be for Eurozone states.

* Swiss officials decline to comment following latest EUR/CHF spike.

* Reuters reports the BoJ leaning towards easing monetary policy next week.

* Norwegian core inflation (Feb) was in line with expectations at +1.9% on year.

* US Wholesale Inventories (Jan) much weaker than expected -0.2% m/m (+0.2% m/m expected) and prior reading revised down to -1.0% from -0.8%.

#

Speculation persists that the government may be planning to restrict short selling in bailed out companies.

Abbott Labs have agreed to buy Facet Biotech Corp for $27 per share.

Bloomberg has reported that Apollo Management have agreed a deal to buy Citigroup’s real estate unit.

BoA Merrill Lynch cut their outlook on Chevron from Buy to Neutral.

#

The US Dollar stabilised as investors fled the Euro and Sterling following destabilising comments from Fitch and Moodys.

Westpac have stated that they believe that Australian consumer confidence may decline in the future.

Data released this morning showed German consumer prices rose by 0.4% in February, higher than the originally reported 0.2%.

Iranian Oil Minister has said that they will lend their expertise to Zimbabwe for refurbishing refineries.

#

The US Dollar stabilised as investors fled the Euro and Sterling following destabilising comments from Fitch and Moodys.

Westpac have stated that they believe that Australian consumer confidence may decline in the future.

Data released this morning showed German consumer prices rose by 0.4% in February, higher than the originally reported 0.2%.

#